DALLAS — Let’s cut right to the chase: I like this deal better for both teams if it’s not the last on they make in the final few days before the trade deadline.

From the Dallas side, the big question at the moment is this: Does the acquisition of Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood put the Mavericks over the top in the West?

If it doesn’t, it seems a fairly limited impact for a $30 million expense — the Mavs were just as capable of losing in the second round without Butler and Haywood. If it does, on the other hand, it’s the kind of creative deal-making that has enabled the Mavs to extend their window as contenders despite their key players getting rather long in the tooth.

The deal — which sends Josh Howard, Drew Gooden and spare parts Quinton Ross and James Singleton to Washington for Butler, Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson — improves Dallas in a couple of key areas, but not cheaply. For Dallas, the bill comes to $13.6 million in payroll and another $13.6 million in luxury tax for the 2010-11 season, when they’re paying the contracts of Butler ($10.56 million) and Stevenson ($4.15 million) instead of Ross’ $1.15 million salary. The deal also adds $1.2 million in salary and another $3.2 in luxury tax for the Mavs this season, although they may be able to reduce those numbers if they can agree to a buyout with Stevenson. All told, the final bill should come in at about $30 million.

So how much better does that lofty sum make Dallas? Based on PER, it doesn’t move the needle much. Our Trade Machine analysis is that the swap improves Dallas by only one win for the remainder of the season, largely because this season the difference in performance between Butler and Howard is much smaller than generally perceived. In fact, statistically, there’s been virtually no difference between the two players over the past four seasons, including this one, in which Butler’s numbers have been down just as sharply as Howard’s.

For the Mavs, the success of the trade might come down to the names in agate type, not the headliners. That is, Haywood and Gooden may be fairly similar in terms of PER, but look at plus-minus stats and a very different picture emerges. According to Basketballvalue.com, Dallas gives up 11.25 points per 100 possessions more with Gooden on the court, one of the worst marks in basketball. Much of that is a result of his role in the rotation — he’s either playing as an undersized center or replacing Dallas’ best player, Dirk Nowitzki — and it indicates that he’s hardly a great fit on the Mavs roster.

On the other hand, Haywood’s plus-numbers over the last half-decade have been spectacular. This year, for instance, Washington is 8.46 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. The one cautionary flag here is that since he was the only Wizard who could defend to save his life, his impact was probably overstated. At the same time, he’s certainly a major defensive upgrade over Gooden, particularly against the types of big men that Dallas will likely have to face to get through the Western Conference playoff gauntlet.

That said, the deal overall still leaves me with more questions than answer. How is Butler going to defend opposing shooting guards when he can’t even guard small forwards? How will the Mavs juggle minutes up front between Haywood and Erick Dampier, especially when they’re likely to play extended stretches without a traditional center and Nowitzki playing the 5?

And most importantly, is the marginal improvement offered by a Gooden-for-Haywood upgrade really enough for a Mavs team that had outscored opponents by only 1.7 points per game on the season and is projected to finish with 49 wins and a No. 5 seed in the West?

As a result, my follow-up question is whether the Mavs are done dealing. If they turn around and swap Dampier’s mammoth expiring deal (he’s technically under contact next year but his salary is unguaranteed) for a quality shooting guard, I’d feel much better about the entire exercise. But at least one front office source I talked to expects the Mavs to wait until summer before trading Dampier.

Without such a second trade, however, it appears the Mavs are spending a total of $30 million just to improve their odds of making the second round. Even after this deal, I don’t like their chances to beat Denver or Utah, let alone the likes of the Lakers.

As for the Wizards, this deal is just a salary dump. They can keep Howard, who has a team option for 2010-11, if he suddenly reverts to his All-Star form of old, but more likely will let him walk and place themselves several million dollars under the cap as a result. They can save more money if they can agree to a buyout with Gooden, who is a free agent after the season, and allow him to sign with another contender by March 1. They’ll also save $4.4 million in luxury tax and contracts thanks to the trade.

As with Dallas, Washington comes out of this better if they can make a second deal to build on the gains of the first. In the Wizards’ case, it would be trading Antawn Jamison, which they seem amenable to doing, to create enough cap space to sign a max-level free agent.

Saturday’s trade signals downsized expectations for the Wizards, who reportedly were asking for an arm and a leg for all their players in recent weeks. The expected ownership takeover by Ted Leonsis after the death of Abe Pollin may be a factor, as Leonsis likely wants to the ‘Zards to cut costs and rebuild as they wait to see how the Gilbert Arenas situation is resolved.

Sum it up, and the logic appears more straightforward for Washington than for Dallas. The Wizards had a goal (cutting money) and accomplished it, though without the talent upside they might have wanted. The Mavs have committed to putting an extra $30 million toward their goal (winning a title), yet we’re not certain they’ve put themselves much closer to the promised land.

That said, we need a few more days before we can issue our final verdicts: The Mavs and Wizards still have until 3 p.m. ET on Thursday to make trades that cast a fresh light on Saturday’s big deal, and it’s those follow-up trades that might change the final score.

Utah Jazz pull away in the fourth quarter and beat the Dallas Mavericks 104-92.

Paul Millsap played well again in his second start putting up 25-9 with 4 blocks.

Kirilenko is continuing to play his best basketball in five years and finished with 13-8-3-4.

D-Will showed why he will be playing in the all star game with 18 points and 15 assists. Williams also added seven rebounds. In all, the Jazz had six players in double figures and held a Dallas team which has been averaging 113 points a game to 16 points in the fourth quarter. The Jazz have now won their sixth straight game and tenth game in there last eleven. Seven of those wins have come over playoff teams (Dallas twice, Miami, Cleveland, San Antonio, Phoenix, and Portland). With the win the Jazz pulled within a half game of third place in the west. They also won the season series with Dallas. Up next the Jazz play Portland who they have beaten twice this season.

I was also looking at Denver’s schedule for the month of February and if the Jazz continue to win they have a good shot at over taking Denver by the end of the month. Denver plays the Lakers twice, both at LA, Phoenix, at Utah, Dallas, San Antonio, at Cleveland, and at Boston.

Dan Roberts Story from the Utah Jazz Magazine that they give out at games. Dan Roberts has been announcing Jazz games since they were the Utah Stars. Great article.

Sundiata Gaines gets the second spot on the plays of the Month for January.

Former Maverick and BYU Star Shaun Bradley was at the game last night. Love to be the fan sitting behind him. Jeremy Call

I can’t wait until they divide Alaska in half and make Texas the third biggest state. As a Utah Jazz fan you hate everything about Texas except for Houston (We own You). Tonight we take on the Dallas Mavericks in the single biggest game of the year.

We all know the matchups and it should be fun to watch D-Will school Jason Kidd. The games is on ESPN and in Texas so you can bet the house on Deron having a good game. You can’t bet anything on a win though, the Jazz have struggled in Dallas over the past 3 yeas going 1-5 interestingly enough the spread is Dallas by 3 seems a little low to me.

It will be interesting to see how Boozer plays tonight and if Memo can get his three point shot from Feb back.

My Predictions-

Deron Goes for 32-10

Jason Terry gets 24 points

Jerry gets a tech or two.

Road game in Texas I can’t pick the Jazz in this one.

Our Defense is pretty bad right now, we are giving up a lot of points and I have a feeling that the Mavericks will show up tonight and the Utah Jazz -Deron Williams will not.

GAME of the NIGHT- This one.

Parlay the MAVS and the CAVS- you won’t regret it.

FINAL SCORE- 108-96 DALLAS

Breaking News.

Karl Malone, John Stockton, David Stern, and many others should be at the game tonight. We love you Larry.

SSHHHHHHHH! don’t tell anyone I can’t play anymore. It seems as though Bobby Jackson has been in the league since the merger. Udrih is hurt, so Bobby will get the nod.

I guarantee a win tonight. There is no possible way that Utah Jazz lose this game.

First, this game could be called the second Larry Miller game. The Jazz will play the kings following the funeral of the late Larry Miller. Emotions will be very very intense.

Second, the Kings are horrible on the road. They have the second worst road record in the league at 4-27 and they only have one player that could hurt us (Kevin Martin).

Third, the crowd should be pretty rowdy and full since the game is on a Saturday night. When the Jazz win it will be the first time in twelve years that the Utah Jazz have swept the season series.

Fourth, the Kings are the worst rebounding team in the league. The Jazz should out rebound them by at least 20 rebounds I say somewhere around 51 31 total rebounds.

Predictions-

Utah Jazz win 113-89

If gambling were legal I would still take the 17 points the Jazz are giving. Unbelievable.

Other stuff-

Bill Simmons backs me up on the salary cap issues (he has the inside scoop, it is here).

Thank you Milwaukee, TTTSNBN, and most of all, thank you to the Los Angeles Lakers for laying over and dying last night.

Milwaukee had the Hornets on the Ropes and gave up a last second tip in.

TTTSNBN gave up a five point lead to Dallas with about 30 seconds left.

The Lakers pulled a Nuggets think (Playoffs 2008) and didn’t show up. The Lakers shot 29.8% from the floor including 9.5% from three, yes 9.5%. Thank you for losing the gimme. Reason #43 why I hate the Los Angeles Lakers.

President Obama attended the Chicago Bulls Game last night in DC.

What if NBA Coaches were given two technicals fouls to call on/give Refs, here is the result.

I really can’t express how stoked I am for the playoffs to start. I found one of my old Junoir Jazz certificates the other day, you know the ones signed by Jerry Sloan. I missed two games last year, the first Houston game and the “Baby Game”. My wife is Due the second week of June so lets just hope I have a Jazz conflict come June right. I have decided to break down every series all the way to the NBA champion. It is like Christmas eve right about know, I am pulling out the true blue shirt, dusting of the Jazz terrible towl, and ironing my Boozer jersey.

East

Boston vs. Atlanta 4-0

With Atlanta pulling the just glad to be in the playoffs card, I think they get swept by Boston. I don’t see a game within ten points. As great as a sweep is for Boston, I think it causes some problems for them in the next round I will explain when we get there.

Wizards vs. Cavs 4-2

I know that Deshaun Stevenson can’t guard LJ, but the Cavs can’t guard Butler,Jamison or freaking agent 0 coming of the bench. Arenas is coming of the bench, how sick is that? As Jazz fans you knowthat feeling you get when when Ginobili comes in against our second team, thats how the Cavs will feel.

Magic vs. Raptors 4-2

I don’t know why Dwight Howard doesn’t go for 30-18 everynight he is a man among boys. Turkalgo will have a good series along with Bosh, but Bosh is a lonestar up there in Canuck land. I do agree with everyone else and their dogs on the fact that TJ Ford is horrible and that Calderon is a freaking stud.

Detroit vs Philly 4-3

I think this series will go much further than everyone else, I feel that Philly is playing out of their minds right now and don’t know that they are supposed to get killed here.

West
Lakers vs. Nuggets 4-1

The Nuggets can’t play defense and the Lakers can score a ton of points, which equals almost a sweep. I am giving the Nuggets one game because between AI and Melo they will both have a good game in game four and put up about 70 points combined. The Kobe factor will not let this go more than 5.

Suns vs. Spurs 4-3

This is probably the best first round matchup I have ever seen or can remember. I think the Shaq trade will play a factir and also Amare will run wild and free. Although the Spurs are the Spurs and the Championship has to go through S.A.

Mavs vs. Hornets 4-2

Maybe the Mavs can handle being a seven see much better than a one seed (see last year). Howard and Dirk will have to do most of the work because Kidd will not be good having to guard CP3 and being much slower on offense. I think the playoff expirience of the Mavs will win this series.

Jazz vs. Rockets 4-1

Dispite the loss to the Spurs a few days ago, the Jazz are playing their best basketball of the year. We have the advantage at every position except for the AK Mcgrady matchup, it would be sick if AK could make McGrady play defense. I see the Jazz stealing one of the first two, then coming back home for the 3-1 lead and just killing the Rockets will to live and they will take game 5.

In case you missed the Last 30 Seconds of last night’s game (like I did), it’s linked here. I can’t find an official release of the “continuation rule.” I know that they have all rules on NBA.COM, but I am unable to find it. My understanding of the rule is that— A. You can’t dribble after the foul has been comitted; B. You can’t take more than 2-3 steps (depending on the player and the ref); C. The shot can be blocked, but does not count on the stat sheet as a block; D. If the shot is made, it counts towards fg% but if missed, it does not count as an attempt. Let me know if there are any other situations I’m missing.

In an interview with Chad Forde, John Hollinger picked the Jazz to come out of the West to play and lose to the Celtics in the NBA finals. It’s number seven on “The Dime” and about two minutes before the interview ends. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime

Let’s recap the predictions from last night’s game. Unfortunately I was correct in my win/loss predicion. As for the player predictions, I will break them down.

D-will outscored Kidd by 11 and did have 5 more assists. 9/10

Terry had 21 instead of 15, but probably didn’t get frustrated as much as I thought. 6/10

Ak brought the lock-jaw down on Howard. 10/10

Booze didn’t show up last night on either end of the floor 2/10

Memo is possessed and this pick was a no brainer 10/10

Overall: Here is my quote from last night “I think the Jazz will be leading in the fourth quarter, but won’t win the game. The mavs are playing at a different level now that Dirk is back in the lineup. I hope the Jazz win, but I’m still not convinced that they are the road team that they we need them to be”. I couldn’t have been more dead on 10/10

Just for my self-esteem can get some props for the last two predictions and breakdowns…sheesh. I realize that it is finals week for a lot of you, but give Spencer some props.

Early predictions for Saturday @ home vs. Denver:
Denver will be on cloudnine for making the last playoff spot and the Jazz (especially D-Will) will be pissed as hell over the last loss. Jazz by 23.

I was lucky enough to be able to go to the game last night and I was not disappointed. It was a great game and well worth the money. Here is a quick recap:

• Crown Burger was a little slower than usual, but still a good hamburger.
• Jazz got off to a great start and almost looked like they would cruise.
• Dirk got frustrated and took his crap play out on Andrei Kirilenko by flagrantly fouling him (which I still think was dirty and done out of frustration and should result in at least a one game suspension).
• The Jazz allowed (or Dallas is just that good) them back into the game and Dallas actually took the lead with about six minutes left in the fourth quarter.
• Jazz got back up by three and forced a turnover which resulted in a Korver three pointer (one of the loudest I have heard the ESA all year).
• Boozer stripped Dirk a few times after that and the Jazz was able to capitalize.
• Dallas made a few three’s, but Korver made all of his free throws to put it in the fridge.

It was a fun night. I was almost ready to go and see if they had any Denver tickets for Saturday available (which I still might do).

Congrats Jazz. Now lets go destroy the T-Wolves and get our redemption for that inexcusable loss last week!

-Jimmy