25 December 2011
It has been a crazy preseason with the Memo trade and all of the new players added to the roster. I think things will only get crazier, in a good way. Here are five bold predictions that are possible, but unlikely for the 2011-2012 Utah Jazz Season.
1) The Utah Jazz Will Make the 2011-2012 Playoffs. Last year the regular season finished with the Spurs at the one spot winning 74% of their games (61-21) and the Memphis Grizzlies winning the eight spot, winning 56% of their games (46-36). I don't think the Spurs will be the one seed, nor do I think that the one seed will win 74% of their games this year, but lets make it easy and go off of those numbers. With a 66 game season, the one seed based of off 74% will be at 49-17 and the eight seed will be at 37-29. Here is the breakdown of the West Conference by winning % for 2011-2012 based of off 2010-2011 numbers.
One Seed- 49-17
Two Seed- 45-21
Three Seed- 45-21
Four Seed- 44-22
Five Seed- 40-26
Six Seed- 38-28
Seven Seed- 37-29
Eight Seed- 37-29
We would have to sneak in the back door at the 7 and 8 seed.
2) The roster will not be the same on opening day as it will be on March 14, the day after the tradeline. This is not that bold, considering we have a Memo trade exception, Cj Miles expiring contract, and Millsap's valuable contract. I think that the Memo trade was not just a salary dump, I think it was the move to make the MOVE. I don't know who, or when, but I don't think this is the end of that trade exception.
3) Al Jefferson will not lead the team in Double Double's.
There are really only two other options, well let's say one. Derrick Favors. Jefferson had 37 Double Doubles last year and that was as the main guy in the paint. Jefferson will most likely get more double teams this year, leaving Favors open for more rebounds and put-backs. One thing to look for in Favors development, is to see when and how quickly he dives to the basket on the double team. This is something that he should pick up on after a couple of weeks. He will first need to identify where the double team is coming from, and then how to react to that double team as far as diving to the basket. Al and Favors have to feed off each other.
4) The Utah Jazz Will be a better defensive team, than offensive team.
Last year the Utah Jazz were 14th in the league in scoring with 99.4 points per game, and 9th in field goal% at .465 as a team. Defensively, they ended up at 19 giving up 101.3 ppg. The edition of Kanter, Favors, and Howard, make our team longer all the way around.Longer doesn't always mean better, but it will most likely help. I don't think the edition of these guys makes us better automatically, but they will help on weak side defense and our front court could be one of the best in the league. All in all, I think we could see these two stat positions switch. I predict we will end up in the top ten in defense and around twenty in offense.
5) Paul Millsap will win the sixth man of the Year Award.
Over the past couple of days the Jazz media guys have given the feeling that Paul Millsap is willing and amiable to come of the bench. We have not witnessed this yet, because of Paul's tendinitis.However it looks like Millsap will be coming off the bench. Millsap should be able to get 28-32 minutes a night of the bench. And depending on how Favors plays, Millsap may be able to get closers minutes. Here are the past ten years of 6th man award winners.
Millsap would need to average about 30 minutes, 15 points, 5+ rebounds, 2+ assists, Essentially over the past five years the 6th man winners play starters minutes, but comes of the bench.The Utah Jazz would also have to make the playoffs and make a semi decent showing with millsap coming of the bench. Millsap is coming of his best season as a pro, and could possible turn that into a 6th man award. Millsap has some tough competition with Terry, Odom, and the front-runner, James Harden.
Tell us your thoughts...
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